Job interviews are a terrible predictor of future production.

Any smart, well-spoken person who is prepared can make themselves look good when talk is all that's needed. The actual work -- production, reliability, quality, effectiveness -- cannot be measured until that person is handed a job to do.

I've made mistakes in hiring people to do jobs that they sounded great at -- and damn, did they suck at actually doing it. I like to think I'm good at judging character and projecting how a person will perform. But the reality is, it's all a crapshoot, like the NBA or NFL drafts. I've found some people who turned out to be even better than I thought, and a bunch who turned out to be worse.

There are very few sure things. And if there are any, I have yet to find one.